Thursday, September 29, 2011

Another proof that Warren Buffet is the Most Intelligent investor !!

In 1934, Ben Graham has written one of the best investment books “Intelligent Investor” and a very wise and intelligent investor read it at the age of 19. The reader of the book (who till then tried his luck with charts and technical analysis) understood the value of the book and complied with the principles religiously. And he became the most intelligent investor in today’s world and currently enjoys position as the second richest person in the world.

Almost every investor ought to know this person - None other than investing genius Warren E Buffett.

Now he asks American rich to give back some of their wealth to the government so that it can balance itself while walking on the tight rope of fiscal balance. US deficits are so high that it can topple the fiscal balance and drive its economy deep into recession and stagnation over the next decade.

Warren Buffett supports taxing the rich and knows a lot about becoming wealthy.

BUT most of the American rich class refuses to do this. The stupid rich who refuses to help their own Nation at this moment of crisis lacks the intelligence of Warren Buffet due to the following reasons:

1. Rich can become richer only in a growing economy. Hence, by paying more taxes and saving the US economy, the rich is helping themselves. A decade of recession doesn’t benefit anyone, including the Rich. Whatever tax they pay now, can be recouped easily through higher profits from their businesses and increasing asset values. Warren Buffet knows this.

2. China growth during the last decade averaged about 9%-10% and even if it slows down (as desired by some myopic western economists), it will easily clock a growth rate of 8% while US economy will face recession. This will accelerate the takeover of No1 slot by China as the wealthiest (& largest) economy in the world. The humiliation of China overtaking the American pride as the No 1 economy will add salt to the injury. Let rich US American be greedy and stingy and cling on to their wealth as their own Nation’s pride goes down the drain.

3. Some writers speak about Warren Buffet being stingy and miserly. I don’t think so. (His middle class attitude gave him robust health and balanced approach to life that helps him to think on his feet. This attitude is comparable to Ben Franklin). On the other hand the rich class of the US who doesn’t want to help the US Govt by agreeing to more tax to reduce the debt burden of the Nation is the real miserly and misery lot.

4. Well, if the statistics provided in the recent press is correct, the poor class in the US is the fastest growing in the world. With the next possible recession in the US, the poor class in the US would rapidly rise and you can see sorrowful souls in soup kitchens burgeoning. Don’t know how the rich class in the US with see this – possibly the villain character (i.e. Scrooge) in Charles Dickens novel 'Christmas Carol', would look a gentleman compared to them.

By refusing to go by the most intelligent investor Warren Buffet’s advice, the rich class of the US is helping China, torpedoes their own future wealth and proves Mr. Scrooge is better than them.






Friday, September 23, 2011

US Economic sluggishess = 1990 Japan. World economy will grow, as in 1990s

Recently, Fed came out with the most funny statement that meant there is 'significant risk' to global economy. Are they still think too much of themselves?!. Of course, US could follow Japan of 1990s thanks to the stupidity of US Fed leadership, but the world won't follow the recession of US.

World will brush aside US just as the economic sluggishness of Japan - then the 2nd largest economy - was ignored by the world. Nikkei Index crashed during 1990s from 20000 to 8000. But during this period US Dow and SPY recorded sharp increase. So did the European indices. So, going forward, you will see corrections in stock indices of US, but Emerging Markets - especially China and India - will march ahead. And of course, those US companies with global reach and focus on these markets could also do well.

Soon US will become the SECOND largest economy in the world as China claims No 1 slot. Already they are ahead of US in many fronts. e.g the largest car market is in China now, the largest number of new millionaires. There are many who wants to see China to go down economic recession route along with US just because they export to US. But China is moving into their untapped potential of huge population with increasing wealth. China will never enter the recession zone! on the other hand it will continue to grow

On the heels is India, which will topple Japan as the third largest economy during this year or early next year. India's growth momentum is unstoppable and they do not have any significant exposure to US except IT. Hence, they are very safe in today's global economic environment.

Both China and India will benefit from reducing commodity prices.

Hence, even if US hits recession zone, these two giant economies will act as the counter balance.

Don't worry , be happy and enjoy the Discount Season in the stock markets!

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Clash of Financial Titans

It is almost two months since this blog has been updated. The reason is that I was on vacation and had several other issues to be tackled including a possible shift in career. However, financial thoughts never left me because the last two months were really crazy. Major financial events were:


1. Fear of USA defaulting on its debt as the President and Congress quarreled on debt ceiling. Once again, after the disputed election of George Bush, it proven again that USA is not far from becoming a 'banana' republic.

2. Downgrade of USA by S&P and its consequences. Whilst the person who showed the courage to downgrade USA (which I believe is apt given their debt burden) has lost his position (of course USA does not use coercion!) the world financial markets went for a topspin. I made the opportunity to make some long term investments in affordable quantities of some good companies. Warren Buffet makes jokes of folks pursuing diversification as an investment strategy and states that diversification is required by ignorant investors. Well I have to admit that I am one of those ignorant ones and given the kind of corporate governance these days, I have no courage to make concentrated investments. In fact, I revisited my investment portfolio and reduced the certain investments, which I felt suffered from concentration risk.

3. Fear of Greece default and its consequences on French and German banks. British, as has been consistent with their historical record, is adept in keeping distance from the continents problems until dragged on to it, is proudly claiming that their banks are immune from the catastrophe that will hit the banks in the continent. However, this confidence may be misplaced as the 'liquidity winter and freeze' that will hit the European Banking & Financial Sector should Greece default (= 2xLehman?). It will blow cold chills winds into the British Isles as well, which will force them to act. Although not in financial front, this happened during Napoleonic times, First World War and Second World War. (During my recent visit to UK, the woes of economic crisis were visible almost everywhere, which recently culminated in riots. It is a wonder how this Small Island commands respectable position in the world. It seems that the nations prayer "God Save the Queen/King' is being answered through generations)

During my vacation, as I focused the thoughts on the financial safety of my investments, the near future outlook offers no comfort. Threats of double dip in US, weak Eurozone, possible collapse of Euro, slowing Indian & Chinese growth, are major challenges. All started with the fall of US real estate market in 2007, which is caused by Ben Bernanke’s "Himalayan Blunder" of fast interest rate hikes. Allan Greenspan open the doors of Real Estate boom with low interest rates and Ben crashed it with higher rates. A handful, mainly hedge funds, FIs, HNWIs,etc made tons of money (but many and the most of the retail investors lost) when the real estate crashed. Whilst banks and institutions who lost money were supported by Govt (bail outs) whose senior management continue to enjoys bonuses, the middle class is now being pushed in poor class.. see the latest news of increasing poverty in the US.

I believe there is two schools of thoughts caused this crisis – a clash of Financial Titans ( Thoughts). Allan believed in credit, somewhere I read that he has stated that a person can be born in credit and die on credit if the welfare state looks after his needs like hospital, education, old age, etc. He believed in credit and it is stated that this reflects in the book he authored after retirement from Fed Governor position.

Ben on the other hand is a traditionalist and doesn't like too much credit and hence tried to de-leverage the US economy too soon too fast, resulting in a spectacular crash and made mess of everything. After Lehman crash, confused Ben hurriedly slash the interest rates to all time lows. (May some one ask Ben, why he hiked the interest rates in 2007 in the first place, if only he had to slash it lowest levels in just one year? No wonder there are many who believe US and World would be better if Ben is replaced!!). Remember Ben and his team could even know how the interest rates could impact the economy and wide social fabric- economic mismanagement is evident by all US admin and they are making predictions!!

Some economists say it will take a decade to clear the things up. If so, the stock market may remain sluggish. Hence, I have also decided to give equal emphasis to equity derivatives to make some gains out of it, possibly through some option condors.