Market Musings for the week starting 12 Dec 2022

 

1. On Dec 9, 2022, Dow fell by 305 points
2. US Inflation Data and India's Inflation Data will be announced next week starting 12 Dec, which will decide the market moves.
3. 2023 recession in US is widely talked about and almost certain. However, since this is not a big surprise, the markets may not crash; however, could decline, depending upon the intensity of the recession.
4. Indian economy is expected to be resilient in 2023- but not immune to the recession in the USA & Europe.  If the recession is mild in USA & Europe, good for Indian economy. If the recession is steep, bad for Indian Economy, especially IT and hence, not so good for Indian stock market.
5. It is worth to note that during February 2018, when Inflation data was not favourable in the USA, Dow fell by 5%.
6. Year-end/ Santa Claus/ Christmas rally (albeit a minor one) can be expected in the next two weeks.