(i) A courageous girl , (ii) US elections

Malala Yousufzai is just a teenager.... however she showed more courage than men in the northern region of Pakistan. Many parents wants good education for their children in the north Pakistan. Hope Malala's efforts brings a new light to the region, which a few centuries ago were beacon of knowledge and technology.
 
The place in Afganistan now notorious for Taliban - Khandahar - was known as Ghandara around BC2000-1000 and is mentioned in Mahabharata. The Ghandara kingdom played a crucial role in the power politics of Indraprasta (now known as Delhi). The battle of Kurukshetra (now in Indian Punjab) was due to the political moves of a gentle (or evil?) man by name Shakuni from Ghandara kingdom.
 
Then around BC 300-200, Buddism became prevelant and slowly the Hinduism gave away to the teachings of Buddism. The people of north Pakistan region and south Afganisatan became a mix of Hindusism and Buddhists and disseminated teachings and boasted about colleges that were the Cambridge of the world of those days (e.g. Thakshasila ). It seems that the world has forgotten the huge Bamiyan Buddists statues destroyed by Taliban a decade ago. Seleucus and Greeks who came with Alexander loved the beauty of the place and settled down. Remnants of Indo-Greco culture is still evident; although it is fading away.
 
Then around 1200, Islam arrived and the conversion followed; some accuse it was done by sword. Yet Islam was absorbed and of that born Sufism, which embodied the principles of life of the region. But Taliban is against Sufism.

Let us hope people of the region will show at least the courage of Malala and hope nowledge and prosperity return to that region.

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US presidential elections are reaching the final lap. Debates are interesting. Somewhere I have read a comparison between George W Bush and Romney. That both are from rich families, got admission to the prestigious colleges because of connections, etc. Well any comparison with George W Bush, who presided over some of the disastrous period in US history starting with Sep 11 2001 and ending with Sep 15 2008 (Financial Crisis), any remote possibility of Romney repeating the same feat is unthinkable.


On the other hand, self-made Barack Obama, who got one of the worst jobs in 2009 has done reasonably well over the last four years and got Osama. In the month of March/April 2012, Times Magazine carried an article on how Obama decided to send commandos to pick up Osama - it was against all the advice by his generals and staff who preferred less effective course of actions. It was Obama's own decision and he oversaw it implementation. Times Magazine had praised the decision making approach and skill of Obama and the way the secret was kept as a secret. Most of his cabinet never knew about his multiple meetings and trainings by commandos.

 

 

Population Growth Dynamics

Recently, my daughter, studying in Class VI asked me a question- is India overpopulated? She learns that India’s population is around 124 crores or 1240 million. Suddenly, I recollected when I was studying in Class VI about 30 years back in early 1980s, India’s population was just above 60 crores or 600 million.

Doubling of population in 30 years! Wow – what will be India’s population 30 years from now– will it be 240 crores or 2400 million! Whatever the India’s population growth supporters say, that is huge number and the challenges will be enormous. The population dividend come with a huge bill to the government in terms of infrastructure, improving standards of living, education, utilities, etc. Even now about 30% of the population of the country is living without electricity and it is almost impossible to believe that will soon change. (Positive thinking persuades me to state that it means 70% of the population have electricity - which is twice the population of USA). A huge percentage of the population will be destined to be poor with low standards of living. Many may have to survive with just one meal per day. Criminal activity will increase, terrorist organisations will get more recruits and social problems will escalate.

Mumbai may be the best sample of India’s population. The City boasts several billionaires of the world, who find place among the top 50 richest persons in the world. There are millions of upper middle class in the City who swallows up luxury products and criss-cross the world. At the same time there are teeming millions of poor who eke out a day’s life. Criminal activity and underworld is active in the city. This social inequality is hard to change if the population continues to zoom. Often the middle/upper class don’t have more children; it seems that the lower middle/poor class tend to have larger families. A few miles outside the city, you get the best of the nature with lush greenery and scenic beauty. Similarly, India is blessed with natural wonders and thousands of years of history and monuments. But increasing population is a challenge –recently the reports of encounters with men and wildlife (e.g. leopards) are on the increase.Well, only the poor class suffer in this manner– the better off segment of the population is in safer places.

One of the reasons for the growth in population is also traceable to religious factors. Pakistan also faces a more severe problem. The fanatic religious leaders encourage more population for strange reasons (Jihad?) and the country is already suffering. Although there is illegal migration from Bangladesh to India, which adds to the growth in population, India continues to manage and accommodate. Pakistan also has got legal immigrants from Afghanistan and Taliban - who deny music, films and education to girls. India’s Mumbai equivalent city in Pakistan is Karachi which is a den of different relegious/political/underworld factions who kills almost one another every day. Recently, I had interviewed a bright candidate from Karachi who advised the sole reason for coming to UAE is the security reasons. He said his family is financially very rich and well off- but security is lacking in the City.

Coming back to India, the population growth in the country has huge disparities. Whilst the experts warn that Kerala state will face a situation akin to Japan within next 15-20 years with huge proportion of elderly population, most of the northern states continue to have large families contributing to the population explosion. This has led to a flow of migrant labourers into the Kerala state from distant regions such as Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, etc.

Overall, whilst the population growth may have its dividends, it comes with huge social costs as well. All responsible governments must be aware of the population growth has a diminishing marginal utility but increasing social costs. And the governments must take appropriate steps when the diminishing marginal utility (of population growth) curve meets the increasing social cost line.