Population Growth Dynamics

Recently, my daughter, studying in Class VI asked me a question- is India overpopulated? She learns that India’s population is around 124 crores or 1240 million. Suddenly, I recollected when I was studying in Class VI about 30 years back in early 1980s, India’s population was just above 60 crores or 600 million.

Doubling of population in 30 years! Wow – what will be India’s population 30 years from now– will it be 240 crores or 2400 million! Whatever the India’s population growth supporters say, that is huge number and the challenges will be enormous. The population dividend come with a huge bill to the government in terms of infrastructure, improving standards of living, education, utilities, etc. Even now about 30% of the population of the country is living without electricity and it is almost impossible to believe that will soon change. (Positive thinking persuades me to state that it means 70% of the population have electricity - which is twice the population of USA). A huge percentage of the population will be destined to be poor with low standards of living. Many may have to survive with just one meal per day. Criminal activity will increase, terrorist organisations will get more recruits and social problems will escalate.

Mumbai may be the best sample of India’s population. The City boasts several billionaires of the world, who find place among the top 50 richest persons in the world. There are millions of upper middle class in the City who swallows up luxury products and criss-cross the world. At the same time there are teeming millions of poor who eke out a day’s life. Criminal activity and underworld is active in the city. This social inequality is hard to change if the population continues to zoom. Often the middle/upper class don’t have more children; it seems that the lower middle/poor class tend to have larger families. A few miles outside the city, you get the best of the nature with lush greenery and scenic beauty. Similarly, India is blessed with natural wonders and thousands of years of history and monuments. But increasing population is a challenge –recently the reports of encounters with men and wildlife (e.g. leopards) are on the increase.Well, only the poor class suffer in this manner– the better off segment of the population is in safer places.

One of the reasons for the growth in population is also traceable to religious factors. Pakistan also faces a more severe problem. The fanatic religious leaders encourage more population for strange reasons (Jihad?) and the country is already suffering. Although there is illegal migration from Bangladesh to India, which adds to the growth in population, India continues to manage and accommodate. Pakistan also has got legal immigrants from Afghanistan and Taliban - who deny music, films and education to girls. India’s Mumbai equivalent city in Pakistan is Karachi which is a den of different relegious/political/underworld factions who kills almost one another every day. Recently, I had interviewed a bright candidate from Karachi who advised the sole reason for coming to UAE is the security reasons. He said his family is financially very rich and well off- but security is lacking in the City.

Coming back to India, the population growth in the country has huge disparities. Whilst the experts warn that Kerala state will face a situation akin to Japan within next 15-20 years with huge proportion of elderly population, most of the northern states continue to have large families contributing to the population explosion. This has led to a flow of migrant labourers into the Kerala state from distant regions such as Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, etc.

Overall, whilst the population growth may have its dividends, it comes with huge social costs as well. All responsible governments must be aware of the population growth has a diminishing marginal utility but increasing social costs. And the governments must take appropriate steps when the diminishing marginal utility (of population growth) curve meets the increasing social cost line.